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Odds of my Side Suit Being Ruffed
Before you lead a card from a side suit and have not drawn all the trump cards – it is extremely helpful if you are aware of the probabilities (the odds) of your card being ruffed by the opposition
How do I Calculate the odds of one of my side suit winners being trumped
Probability Table
Sometimes you are in the position of need ing to play a side suit winner before you have drawn out all the trumps. Usually this will be either in order to reduce your trump length as holding long trumps is a disadvantage when an opponent holds a trump honor and can draw two of your trumps by playing only one of his own, or when performing a trump endplay. Anyway you may or may not wish to have this card trumped.
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| Cards Opposition holds | vs. Rounds Played in the Suit | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | |
| 2 cards | 100% | 100% | 100% | 48% |
| 3 cards | 100% | 100% | 100% | 22% |
| 4 cards | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10% |
| 5 cards | 100% | 100% | 32% | 4% |
| 6 cards | 100% | 65% | 17% | 2% |
| 7 cards | 100% | 38% | 8% | 1% |
Table: The Odds of Being Ruffed compared to how many rounds of that suit have been played
